Exit from crisis

World crisis - the main event today's (yesterday's and tomorrow's) day. To speak about when «crisis» senselessly will end, on an exit for us waits other economic system is perfect. Now it is necessary to solve two mega-actual problems: growth of unemployment and decrease in a standard of well-being. It can be made, having understood the deep reason of crisis. To meet crisis it is possible developing free business: it will create workplaces and will lift well-being.

World crisis - the main event of year

The decent economic theory is always actual. It means, that it is strongly entered in a context of the surrounding validity and is capable to give answers to topical questions.

Still two years ago scientists could argue on what trend main - globalisation or growth of influence of consumers. And, maybe, it only displays of a new megatrend?

Today at anybody such questions do not arise. The main event today's (yesterday's and tomorrow's) is day a world crisis.

The magic wand will not be

Politicians name from time to time concrete termination dates of crisis. For example, in the beginning of April the first vice-president of the government Igor Shuvalov has declared, that negative consequences of crisis will be overcome for three years. It has been told at a meeting with representatives of the large Russian business, the organised Moscow school of management "Skolkovo".

However, let's look to the truth in eyes. What the phrase «means crisis consequences will be overcome» or (that too most) "crisis will come to the end also the economy will go on the amendment"? Really someone seriously believes, that on a wave of a magic wand Oleg Deripaska will receive back lost $28 billion, bank Lehman Brothers will head the list of leading investment banks, and the dismissed workers with pleasure will accept on former workplaces.

Children, regain consciousness! World crisis has long, system and deep character. If to speak language of natural cataclysms we deal not with a rain and at all hailstones, we deal with earthquake. The whole layers move, the landscape varies, territories fall under water and rise from depths, natatorial appear on a land, and overland in water. It not a rain after which the sun again will begin to shine, this earthquake - world reorganisation. The old economic system will cease to exist - to come back will be no place. To speak about when «crisis» senselessly will end, on an exit for us waits other economic system is perfect.

Growth of unemployment and well-being decrease

World crisis - the phenomenon multiplane. At it it is possible to allocate different aspects: political - change of architecture of the power, scientific - inability to do forecasts, ethical - crisis (not) trust.

In my opinion there are two mega-actual problems: growth of unemployment and well-being decrease.

Unemployment growth. According to Rosstat in the end of February, 2009, 6,4 million persons, or 8,5 % of economically active population, were classified as the unemployed. For comparison, in January, 2008 - 4,9 million Difference in 1,5 million persons.

Well-being decrease. While for "mere mortals" decrease in a standard of well-being not so is appreciable. According to Rosstat the monthly average wages in February, 2009 have made 17580 roubles and in comparison with February, 2008 have grown on 13,9 % that is comparable with official figures on inflation. But it was to the full felt by the richest people of a planet. By estimations Forbes the status of the richest people was reduced to $2 bln. - to $2,4 bln.

As crisis end it is not visible, hardly it is possible to say that the direction of tendencies will change. Most likely, it is possible to expect growth of number of the unemployed and decrease in a standard of life downwards on "a well-being ladder".

To survive = to understand + to adapt

We should not restore old economic system! For what reason? It has appeared impractical. Our problem to adapt in new conditions, and for this purpose it is necessary to understand, what deep reason has generated crisis. Let's try "wind off a film" - to restore logic of crisis in a return chronological order.

1. What do we have today? A world economic crisis.
2. What did we have yesterday? Crash of hypothecary crediting in the USA.
3. Than hypothecary crisis has been provoked? Delivery of a large quantity of poor credits.
4. Why poor credits stood out? Because in the western banks the large quantity of cheap money which needed to be "attached" somewhere has accumulated, money cannot lay without business.
5. Whence in the western banks there was a huge weight of cheap money? All world reserves the means in US dollars.
6. Why all world reserves the means in US dollars? Because the USA are the country with the biggest, stable and interconnected economy.
7. Why economy of other countries not such big, stable and interconnected? Because distinctive feature of economy of the USA is the high share of a private sector. The state occupies 28 % of gross national product, the others of 72 % - a private sector. According to some information in the USA the quantity of people which can be carried to a category "businessman" totals 33 million persons - approximately 25 % of the working population of the country.

So in what the crisis reason? In insufficient quantity of businessmen. It is a question, both about businessmen, and about enterprise type of thinking. Understand, the logician "to put money in another's bank that them not to lose in the business" is not the enterprise logic (namely so do the governments of all countries, except the USA). The enterprise logic consists in aspiration to "increase", instead of "easier to save". And all know, that the more the financial lever, the it turns out to increase is better. Therefore it is necessary not to give money «under modest, but stable percent», and to start up in business, involving another's means.

Exit from crisis

It turns out, that to leave crisis to us is necessary to develop business. Let's check up our conclusion and we will respond to two simple questions:

Whether business promotes creation of workplaces?

Whether business promotes increase of a standard of well-being?

Creation of workplaces

I will give an example from history of the USA. In 1950th years experts predicted, that in twenty-twenty five years the economy of the USA will face a serious problem - it cannot provide with job of all born in a population explosion.

In practice with 1970 for 1984, it has been created 40 million new workplaces which have provided with job bebi-bumerov, for the first time the come to work married women and the reduced employees of corporations. If you think, has what is it occurred thanks to advancing growth of economy, it not so. Since 1973, it was very restless time - energy crises, almost full breakdown of the enterprises of power-intensive branches and two notable recessions in addition.

These workplaces have not been created in public sector: education, medicine, reduced the staff of the government of different level. The high technology sector too was not the locomotive, it has given no more than 4-6 million new workplaces. Workplaces have been created by the companies of small and average business, the majority from which were new - they did not exist 25 years ago. The majority of them concerned old branches - fast food networks, hairdressing salons, stomatology, a fancy bread batch, porcelain manufacture, financial services.

Conclusion: enterprise activity promotes creation of workplaces.

Increase of a standard of well-being

Let's open list Forbes-2009, we will look at a source of well-being of ten the richest people of a planet. All ten - the active active businessmen working in different sectors of economy.

8 persons - "have made" the status the work.

2 persons - have received the inheritance and have increased it.

If we look at the first 50 participants of list Forbes-2009 we will receive a little bit other picture.

28 persons - "have made" a status

11 persons - «have received and have increased»

11 persons - have received in the inheritance

However essentially here again the picture does not vary.

Conclusion: enterprise activity promotes increase of a standard of well-being.

Check of our hypothesis has passed successfully: business development is capable to solve a problem of decrease in a standard of living and to stop growth of unemployment and, finally, to meet crisis.